The Netherlands has reached a historic inflection point in its higher education internationalisation trajectory. According to Nuffic’s latest report “Inkomende diplomamobiliteit in het Nederlandse hbo en wo 2025–26”, the total number of international degree students in Dutch higher education has declined for the first time in two decades, signalling a shift from sustained expansion to cautious stabilisation—and potentially early contraction.
First overall decline since 2006
In the 2025–26 academic year, the Netherlands hosted 129,764 international students, a marginal decline of 133 students (-0.1%) compared to the previous year. While numerically small, the shift is symbolically significant, breaking a long upward trend in which international enrolments had previously grown by double-digit percentages annually.
International students now account for 16.8% of the total student population, a share that has risen slightly despite the decline in absolute numbers. This is largely due to a faster contraction in the domestic student population rather than renewed international growth.
New inflows also softened, with 48,139 new international students (-0.4%), reinforcing concerns that the downturn may continue in subsequent years.
Nuffic researcher Jonatan Weenink described the shift as a structural break, noting that declining bachelor’s intake is likely to feed through into future cohorts.
Bachelor’s decline and master’s illusion of growth
The downturn is concentrated at undergraduate level. Research university (WO) bachelor’s programmes, which remain the dominant entry route at 42.5% of international enrolments, fell by 2.9% (-1,618 students) for the first time in years.
At the same time, HBO bachelor’s enrolments remained broadly stable (+0.6%), masking uneven dynamics across institutions and disciplines.
Master’s programmes present a more complex picture. Both WO and HBO master’s enrolments increased (+2.8% and +7.6% respectively), but this growth is primarily driven by internal progression—international students already in the Netherlands transitioning from bachelor’s to master’s study. When these “pipeline effects” are excluded, direct international master’s intake is also in decline.
This suggests that the apparent resilience of postgraduate education is largely a lagging indicator of earlier bachelor’s inflows rather than renewed international demand.
Europe dominates, while China falls sharply
The Netherlands remains deeply embedded in European student mobility networks. EEA students account for 72.2% of all internationals, with a gradual shift from Western Europe toward Eastern and Southern European countries.
Germany continues to dominate as the largest source country with 18,241 students, despite an 8.4% decline, extending a five-year downward trend. Other established European contributors such as Italy, Spain, and Romania remain strong, while Poland has entered the top five source countries for the first time.
The most dramatic shift concerns China. Total Chinese enrolments have fallen by 16.2%, while new enrolments dropped by 27.5%, pushing China out of the top five sending countries for the first time since 2006 and down to seventh place.
This reflects both structural and strategic changes: rising quality and global standing of Chinese universities, demographic contraction, and stronger domestic retention of talent.
By contrast, several non-EEA markets are expanding. Türkiye recorded 11.7% growth in new enrolments, the United States rose by 14.5%, and Ukraine has become a significant contributor among non-EEA countries.
Engineering becomes a strategic growth engine
While overall numbers stagnate, disciplinary redistribution is reshaping Dutch higher education. Engineering has grown by 10.7%, becoming the second-largest field of study among international students at research universities, overtaking behavioural and social sciences.
This expansion is overwhelmingly driven by EEA students and is concentrated in technical universities. The Eindhoven University of Technology (+18.9%) and Delft University of Technology (+8.4%) are the only major institutions showing strong growth in international enrolments.
The strongest growth areas include aerospace engineering and rapidly expanding programmes in data science and artificial intelligence, with some programmes reportedly doubling in size year-on-year.
This aligns with Dutch labour market policy priorities, particularly in high-skill shortage sectors such as semiconductors and advanced engineering.
Geography of international education is shifting
Within the Netherlands, international students remain heavily concentrated in South Holland (24.5%) and North Holland (20.1%), though North Brabant is emerging as the fastest-growing region (+6.2%).
At the city level, Amsterdam remains the largest international student hub but has recorded its first decline in two decades (-1.7%). In contrast, Eindhoven has become the fastest-growing student city (+13.4%), reflecting the concentration of STEM-driven growth.
Institutionally, the University of Amsterdam remains the largest host, followed by Maastricht University, where international students now make up a majority of the student body (53.5%). However, 7 of the 10 largest research universities recorded declines, underscoring the breadth of the downturn.
Policy recalibration and strategic uncertainty
The decline is unfolding amid significant policy recalibration. The revised Internationalisation in Balance Act (WIB)reflects a more targeted approach to managing inflows. While some restrictive measures have been softened—such as scrapping the language proficiency test (TAO) for existing programmes—new tools have been introduced, including the ability for institutions to impose numerus fixus caps on English-taught tracks.
At the same time, the government has explicitly exempted STEM disciplines from broader recruitment limitations, recognising acute labour shortages in sectors such as engineering and technology (including initiatives such as Project Beethoven).
This dual-track approach—restriction in some disciplines, expansion in strategic sectors—helps explain the uneven geography of growth across institutions like Eindhoven and Delft.
A turning point rather than a collapse
Taken together, the 2025–26 data does not suggest an abrupt contraction but rather a gradual structural rebalancing of Dutch higher education internationalisation.
The system is shifting from broad-based expansion to selective recruitment, increasingly concentrated in STEM fields, European mobility corridors, and a smaller number of high-performing institutions.
Whether this stabilisation becomes a long-term plateau or the beginning of sustained decline will depend on how policy reforms, housing constraints, and global competition for international students evolve over the coming years.
- Log in to post comments